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Making a living by selling or installing security has never been easy. Few customers really want to buy security equipment; it is usually a grudge purchase that rarely adds to the bottom line. End-user loyalty is hard to keep as it may be years between add-ons and upgrades. When problems occur, the equipment usually gets the blame as it cannot answer back. To cap it all our industry is a cruel mistress that punishes failure; in some years as many as 25 per cent of security installers go out of business.

Limited range of equipment
To minimise risk, most installing companies limit the range of equipment they sell. Smaller firms may only deal in one or two technologies and markets such as that for residential intrusion systems. Companies hold back from taking on more technologies for two reasons. Firstly, the different system types (access, intrusion, fire and CCTV) are not based on one single fundamental technology. As a result individual engineers and technicians cannot become truly expert in the whole range of technologies. Unless a company has a large and varied amount of work coming in continuously, it is difficult to keep skilled people fully occupied in their specialist area.

Secondly, products from different companies all work differently. So skills gained in one sector with a particular product are difficult to transfer to another manufacturer's range. Consequently installers learn the details of a specific set of equipment, adding to this knowledge incrementally as new products and client problems arise.

Recently digital systems have been touted as the next 'holy grail' for security. Digital video recorders (DVR) have all but replaced VCRs in CCTV. This is often presented as the first step in moving to totally digital IP-based video systems. Well maybe; but there is big difference between replacing one 'box' with a more powerful digital version and designing a whole system around Internet protocols and networks. IP is certainly at the core of the most exciting and powerful products that have been showcased at recent exhibitions. However simply learning how to set an IP address on a digital camera does not magically transform a traditional CCTV installer into a 21st century security warrior. Not does being able to use a PC and the Internet endow him with all the skills needed to stay in business over the next decade.

Forces for change
The forces that will affect our industry will be as much commercial as technical. Along with digital technology there will be a fundamental change in the way that security is supplied and sold. Many of today's skills will become irrelevant as products, processes and routes to market all change. This will not happen all at once. Certain market areas will transform rapidly, other will look very similar even five years from now. But make no mistake, after a couple of decades of rapid growth the very structure of our industry is set to alter.

Security is a rather introspective industry; at trade shows, along with all the familiar faces, the talk is always of other security products and companies. Left to itself the industry would probably continue much as today, with new entrepreneurial start-ups risking all on new ideas and, if successful, selling out to one of the more conservative security conglomerates who need to fuel their growth through acquisition. This cosy and familiar scenario will get some nasty jolts over the next few years. All companies, large or small, will find themselves in competition with organisations from totally different sectors.

The idea of running separate cables for intrusion, access control or CCTV will not be entertained. In fact, given the frequencies with which companies restructure, such cabling is a major constraint to flexibility.

'Giant' competitors
Instead of traditional competitors of similar size and profile they will find themselves up against giant industries, many times their size, or aggressive niche players with technologies, skills and routes to market that cannot be matched quickly, if at all.

Initially changes will impact at the periphery. New technologies and companies will appear with innovative offerings. At first only a few customers will risk a change of supply but as the benefits become apparent, market penetration by the newcomers will accelerate. As the tide of traditional installations retreats, companies that do not adapt will be squeezed into smaller 'rock pools' until their faltering economics force change or extinction. As has happened in so many other industries, many of the largest and most prestigious will not survive. A generation ago the computer industry was composed of huge and powerful behemoths like DEC, Olivetti, Wang, Data General and ICL who viewed the Apple, Microsoft and Compaq 'upstarts' as little more than toymakers. The consequent revolution is well known with many of the old giants gone or shadows of their former selves. Even the mighty IBM only survived thanks to brutal corporate surgery; transforming itself from a mainframe manufacturer to a service provider.

Exactly how these changes will happen will only be clear in retrospect but some of the initial pressure points can be identified now. The two most obvious will be SOHO (small office/home office) and large distributed systems. Looking at both of these we see some of the signs of impending market dislocation.

Working from home
As commuting becomes ever more tiresome and office space more expensive to rent, heat and maintain, the arguments for working from home become difficult to resist. At the same time more people are setting up service businesses from home. Because people spend more time in their homes, service offerings will change. A disruptive technology will be broadband cable communications. Instead of individual services that are bought separately, the householder will be able to get a huge range of services from one service provider at a considerable discount to what is paid today. In addition these services will have broader offerings with greater customisation for each user.

Today and tomorrow
Today we have five channels of terrestrial analog TV, tomorrow we'll have Broadband digital TV with hundreds of channels ... Today we have video rental from the local shop, tomorrow we'll have video on demand over cable ... Today we go into the office for weekly meetings, tomorrow we'll join in video conferencing ... Today we have analogue phones via PABX with calls charged per minute, tomorrow we'll have telephony over IP with unlimited talk and a flat monthly fee ... Today we phone the baby sitter to check all is well, tomorrow we'll view video from our homes over a 3G phone to check that the children are in bed ... Today intruder systems are monitored by central stations and 98 per cent of alarms are false, tomorrow there will be reliable home monitoring through intelligent sensors with video verification almost eliminating false alarms ...

Today’s installer will find himself squeezed out of the residential market over the next decade

To receive and control these services each home will have a 'Residential Gateway' (RG) attached to its broadband cable. Looking very much like the set top box that satellite TV systems employ, the RG will link into every system in the house bringing telephone, TV, radio, Internet access and many other services to each member of the household according to their needs and preferences.

As well as being a conduit for voice, video and data, the RG will be a powerful computer in its own right running home automation and security. As a result the intrusion panel that we all know today will disappear. Sensors will wirelessly connect directly to the RG.

The implications for security installers are profound. The RG will be installed and configured by the service provider. Householders will not be interested in paying a separate company to come in simply to screw a few wireless PIRs on the wall. This service will either be provided as part of the RG installation or householders will themselves do it as a DIY task. These advanced PIRs will also contain cameras for alarm verification.

Today's installer will find himself squeezed out of the residential market over the next decade Central monitoring companies will have to add video surveillance to their basic functionality if they wish to stay in business. They may have to give up this unequal battle with the big utilities (gas, electricity, telephone and home entertainment) who will all fight to be the unique service provider into the home.

Large Distributed Systems
Thanks to Internet hackers, worms, viruses and the rising tide of electronic fraud, security is now the No.1 issue for IT managers. In former times with stand-alone computers serviced by white-coated technicians in clean-rooms data security was not an issue.

By linking IT systems with access control and CCTV, perpetrators can be monitored and caught more easily.

Today, everyone has a PC on their desk; usually with Internet access. The issue is so important that US corporations are now appointing security directors who report directly to the CEO rather than the IT director. It becomes logical for the security director to take responsibility for both physical and IT security. This is all the more understandable when you know that most hacking occurs from within companies not from outside. By linking IT systems with access control and CCTV, perpetrators can be monitored and caught more easily.

This interoperability is not easy at present. The security director with a background in IT will simply not understand why security systems are so difficult to integrate. IT systems have solved the interoperability problem using web service technology.

Pressure will mount for all elements of physical security to plug into the building's structured cabling and be configured to connect and integrate as easily as a printer. The idea of running separate cables for intrusion, access or CCTV will not be entertained. In fact, given the frequencies with which companies restructure, such cabling is a major constraint to flexibility.

Integration required
Today's security integrators are usually expert in one or two systems like access control and CCTV. The ability to integrate their functionality with IT systems is a rare skill.

Yet this is exactly what will be increasingly required. Contracts will increasingly go to network installers and facilities management companies whose deeper understanding of how organisations function will put them in a powerful position in the market.

The familiar landscape that installers and integrators know is beginning to change into something very different.