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Apart from the underlying assumption for general inflation (the retail prices index), you need to be able to make separate judgements about real-terms changes for each of the main items of expenditure and income. The Bank of England's central inflation target is 2.5% and most registered social landlords use this in their long-term plans.

Income change assumptions should reflect rent restructuring policy requirements, or local market factors for items not subject to the policy. Real-terms cost-change assumptions should differentiate between the major spending items such as staff costs, service costs, routine maintenance, planned maintenance and other running costs. Local factors will always be important in making judgements here and so your plan should reflect these. In the long term, staff costs can be expected to rise faster than general inflation, in line with general economic growth, although best value and other initiatives may offset some of the impact in the short to medium term.

The effect of future pension fund deficits and National Insurance changes are more difficult to predict. Many RSLs, particularly those in the South-east, have experienced growth in maintenance costs of 4% a year or more in recent years. It would be wrong to assume that this rate of increase will continue in the long term, but it is difficult to judge when it will revert to a more realistic level.

The main conclusion here is that long-term forecasting is fraught with uncertainty. Probably the most important part of your planning therefore is to carry out "what if" scenarios. These will identify the main areas of risk in the plan and ensure that your association can either accommodate higher than expected cost increases or that you have a range of realistic contingency plans to cope with the worst-case scenario.

Dermot McRoberts, Executive director, Hacas Chapman Hendy

Care leavers and university
I am aware of a young girl in foster care who wants to go to university this September. She currently lives with a family whom she considers to be her own. However, the family would be unable to keep her bedroom open for her while she is away.

At present, they charge £50 a week and if she gets assistance for the rent at university, she would lose the safety net of a room in what she considers to be her family home.

If funding cannot be found to keep the room open during the vacations, she feels that she may not be able to leave for university. Can anyone help?

Under the (Children) Leaving Care Act 2001, there is a statutory duty for local authorities to promote all eligible and relevant children to continue in their education – and to remove barriers that could stop them entering higher education. That duty encapsulates the provision of accommodation outside term time.

If the care leaver wants to pursue higher education, an application and arrangement would be formed through the pathway planning process at a local level via the leaving care personal adviser, family placement officer and the carer. Financial provision should cover the time the young person is attending higher education and should be set aside within an authority's Leaving Care budget.

Leaving Care provision provides support up to 21 years of age, but Liverpool council's Leaving Care team will provide support services up to 24 years of age and beyond. Leaving Care services also have a duty to provide educational equipment linked to the care leaver's course.

Against that background, I would recommend that the care leaver in this instance contact their local authority Leaving Care service to agree a way forward that would enable her to retain her permanent accommodation while also financially supporting her temporary accommodation during term time.

Richard Kemp, Vice chair, Local Government Association housing executive