The green shoots of growth in the capital’s office market herald a renewed sense of optimism in the industry, as developers are finally giving the go-ahead to ambitious new projects.
It may be only one floor of a building, but the significance is considerable. Work will start next week on the 34th level of the Swiss Re building, the so-called Gherkin (pictured left) – which, since it was completed last year, has been just as notable for being two-thirds empty as for its dramatic impact on London’s skyline. The empty floor space was an ever-present sign that the much-hoped for return of the capital’s office market, which has been in a slump for most of the decade, had yet to come. The fact that some of the space is finally being taken comes as more optimism and, more importantly, activity is present in a sector that has suffered a downturn for most of the decade. Which hopefully means work that has been frozen on the drawing board for QSs and project managers will finally transfer to site.
This welcome upturn in fortunes has led to developers pushing a raft of new speculative office schemes. QSs ranging from Gardiner & Theobald to AYH and Cyril Sweett Ryder Hunt are tendering out major office schemes across the city (see Key London jobs, below).
On the move
Without doubt, this positive attitude is sweeping through the whole industry. “People are a bit more confident,” says one contractor tendering for several of the 10 or so major new projects. He adds that there appears to be a consensus that developers want new products on the market by the end of 2007, hence the need to get plans up on site. Equally significantly, projects where contractors had already been selected some months ago – such as Land Securities’ New Street Square project on London’s Fetter Lane – are finally moving to the construction phase. And such is the buoyant mood at the moment, there is even talk in the market that some of the hugely ambitious tall towers planned for the capital, including the Heron Tower by developer Gerald Ronson, may finally go ahead. No wonder the sector is feeling a lot more enthusiastic about the future.
Recovery position
The latest industry research seems to back this up. Property surveyor and agent CB Richard Ellis’ survey of the central London market in the first quarter of 2005, released last week, found that the volume of office space under construction rose to nearly 5m square feet. This is the first substantial increase in construction activity since 2000 and “suggests a growing willingness to initiate development schemes in the early stages of the recovery phase”. The survey also believes there is at last a change in sentiment among developers in the City: “there are indications of a growing willingness on the part of developers to activate consented or proposed schemes for delivery late in the decade”.
There are other significant green shoots of recovery in the office market for QSs and project managers, as well as the eye-catching shiny new blocks appearing out of the ground. James Dickson, a director at Northcroft, has seen more demand for so-called churn work, where occupiers need quick fit-out work for individual floors, in the last two months or so. This comes a year after the fit-out market nearly ground to a halt, leading to the collapse of contractors such as Spectrum and Benson. Dickson also points to the continued strength of the market in London’s West End. “It’s still quite vibrant,” he points out.
Another sign that things are moving in the right direction is the serviced office market. London firm Matrix is working on two such schemes for client MWB Business Exchange, one in Cannon Street, Central London, and another in Birmingham. Managing director David Clark sees such work as indicating further demand – which, in time, can only lead to a regeneration. He sums up a more positive feeling among those in the market. “There has not been much going on for three or four years, probably even longer than that. Luckily there is a sense of things happening now.”
Central London offices under construction
The future’s bright
CB Richard Ellis’ research reveals evidence of the first rise in construction in central London for three years (see graphic, left), and other positive pointers, too. It claims that, despite the take-up of office being on the sluggish side in the first quarter of 2005, expectations are positive for the market and adds that external forecasts indicate growth in the London economy running above UK levels over the next two years. The research also finds that total availability of office space has reduced for the sixth successive quarter, reflecting a more confident stance from corporate-end users about the future in the medium term.
Looking at rental levels, the survey says the worst may also be over in the City, with a year-on-year growth of 2% for the first quarter. “City rents are now showing some signs of life,” the analysis concludes. In overall terms, the research deduces that central London is in the midst of a robust recovery, pointing to the FTSE-100 index reaching a two-and-a-half year high in February. This strong position should act as a counterweight to any uncertainty during and after next week’s general election.
Key London jobs
Cheapside
Two major schemes are on the cards here. First up is a £50m project planned by developer St Martins Property Group, which is currently being tendered to five contractors. The second, a £40m job, is to be built by Bovis Lend Lease, with Gardiner & Theobald taking the QS role.
Paddington, Regent and Cannon Streets
Other projects include a new £40m office block in the Paddington Central development (QS AYH), a £25m scheme in Regent Street planned by City & West End and a redevelopment of Bucklesbury House near Cannon Street station by Legal & General.
London Stock Exchange
A contractor is due to be selected for the redevelopment of the London Stock Exchange’s former home, by the end of next month. The £75m scheme, planned by developer Hammerson, is right in the heart of the Square Mile in the City and will be split into two phases. The first phase will be a revamp of the tower building on Old Broad Street and the second a new building to the West of the tower on Threadneedle Street. The QS on the job is Davis Langdon; architects are Grimshaw and GMW Architects.
Holborn Viaduct
Developer Castlemore Securities is planning a £40m office block in the so-called Midtown area of central London. The team includes architect Rolfe Judd and QS Cyril Sweett.
New Street Square
Developer Land Securities is ploughing on with this £200m scheme on New Fetter Lane, designed by Bennetts Associates. Demolition work has started on site ahead of the construction, which will be carried out by Sir Robert McAlpine.
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Central London offices under construction
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