星空传媒

It is a crisp winter day in the Smethwick area of Birmingham and Lord Rooker, minister for regeneration and regional development, is standing on a pile of rubble. This is the site of the old Cape Hill brewery, one of the first targets for demolition by Birmingham and Sandwell鈥檚 housing renewal pathfinder, dubbed Urban Living. The 拢75m development will include 900 new homes, 30% of them affordable, and the first will go on sale in December.

For Rooker, this is one of the ODPM鈥檚 success stories. 鈥淚t鈥檚 excellent,鈥� he says. 鈥淣ine hundred new homes is a tremendous prospect to look forward to 鈥� it鈥檚 a good example and it fits exactly with what the pathfinders are all about.鈥�

This is the kind of project Labour hopes will woo voters in the forthcoming general election, expected on 5 May. Over the next four months, we can expect to see more ministers standing on building sites in an attempt to draw the electorate鈥檚 attention to projects that have resulted from the first tranches of spending laid out in February 2003鈥檚 Communities Plan.

But not everywhere has it been plain sailing. Deputy prime minister John Prescott鈥檚 ambitious plan for addressing the failures of successive governments to balance the housing market was branded by some as a strategy to concrete over the South while indiscriminately wielding a wrecking ball over the North. As work gets under way, a groundswell of local opposition may mean that ministers get more than they bargain for when they return to their constituencies to promote the work of the plan.

Today in Cape Hill, it鈥檚 more a matter of glad-handling representatives of Birmingham and Sandwell councils, the pathfinder and the developer, but there could be a storm brewing. The 拢50m programme includes the demolition of 590 properties by March 2006. Vicky Ford, Conservative candidate for Birmingham Northfield, an area covered by the pathfinder, says it could be a decisive issue even before the clearance programme begins in earnest. 鈥淭he pathfinder doesn鈥檛 have money for local X repairs. In Northfield there is a large amount of council-owned property where there has been huge underinvestment. I was on an estate this morning where no money has been spent properly for 15 years. There were windows falling out. It will be a huge election issue. A lot of people will vote Conservative for the first time as Labour has failed to deliver on promises.鈥�

In other pathfinder areas where the demolition is further advanced, rival factions are already rushing to capitalise. In East Lancashire, Urban Living鈥檚 counterpart Elevate has been the subject of fierce local criticism as its 拢32m programme, which includes knocking down 800 homes across five local authorities, kicks in.

Campaign group Save Britain鈥檚 Heritage is determined to make Elevate鈥檚 demolition plans a key political battleground and points to the 2004 council elections as evidence of the influence such programmes can have. 鈥淵ou only have to look at Newcastle, where the Labour administration was kicked out and the Liberals were elected on a pledge to end the pathfinders,鈥� Wilkinson says.

But Peter Pike, Labour MP for Burnley, is determined that his party will not lose ground over the issue. 鈥淭here are 4500 homes in Burnley in which no one wanted to live,鈥� he says. 鈥淚鈥檇 ask anyone who wants to save the homes, would you live in them?鈥� In fact, Labour hopeful Kitty Ussher has made housing one of her key campaign areas, last autumn promising that her mission would be 鈥渢o restore the pride to our communities, and we need new housing to do that鈥�.

Pike does concede that the demolition programme has caused controversy but he says that the opposition has decreased since the government increased the level of compensation going to tenants whose houses are due for demolition.

In the London鈥揅ambridge鈥揚eterborough growth area, the story is the same, although the programme is different. The regional spatial strategy for the area, which is out for public consultation, proposes 478,000 new homes for the area by 2021. Critics of the proposals say the region does not have the infrastructure to support such growth.

鈥淚t鈥檚 the most politically contentious area,鈥� says Roger Humber, chair of Anglia Housing Group and a member of the East of England regional assembly. 鈥淭he Tories are revving up to oppose housing and campaign on a lack of infrastructure 鈥� they鈥檒l go hard on this issue as they are short of issues to put clear water between them and Labour.鈥�

The issue reached fever pitch in December last year when the national papers splashed local concerns across their front pages. There have been vociferous campaigns against the housebuilding plans and political hopefuls are already capitalising on this.

Government plans to increase the area鈥檚 new homes target by a further 18,000 have added to the controversy. Andrew Lansley, shadow secretary of state for health and Conservative MP for South Cambridgeshire, has already waded into the debate. In October he wrote to the regional assembly denying there was a need for the homes locally and he will be campaigning on this issue in the run-up to the general election.

At East Hertforshire council, Deborah Clarke, executive member for economic and regional development, also anticipates housebuilding plans will be a key motivation for voters. 鈥淲e have a shortage of affordable housing but this goes goes way beyond the needs of local people 鈥� double, in fact,鈥� she says. Clarke sites the example of Harlow, where 10,000 homes are to be built to the north of the town. 鈥淚 can鈥檛 see how it can鈥檛 be a political issue for local people.鈥�

But it鈥檚 not always clear which way the floating voters of middle England will swing. It is notoriously difficult to predict the whims of the electorate, and for every environmentalist or NIMBY, there could be someone else wondering whether their children will ever be able to afford a home of their own. One thing is certain though; as the election looms, housing and regeneration plans will be under ever closer scrutiny.